Oljemarknadsrapport – juni 2023 – Analys – IEA (2023)

FAQs

What is the oil market report for 2023? ›

World oil demand will grow by 2.4 mb/d in 2023 to 102.3 mb/d, a new record. China's rebound continues unabated, with its oil demand reaching an all-time high of 16.3 mb/d in April. The non-OECD accounts for 90% of gains this year, as OECD demand remains lacklustre amid the current manufacturing slump.

World Oil Reserves

The world has proven reserves equivalent to 46.6 times its annual consumption levels. This means it has about 47 years of oil left (at current consumption levels and excluding unproven reserves).

We estimate that around USD 2.8 trillion will be invested in energy in 2023. More than USD 1.7 trillion is going to clean energy, including renewable power, nuclear, grids, storage, low-emission fuels, efficiency improvements and end-use renewables and electrification.

The “Accelerated” scenario projects oil demand at 91 million bpd in 2030 and 80 million bpd in 2035, while the “Net Zero” scenario sees demand dropping to 85 million bpd in 2030, and further down to 70 million bpd by 2035.

We expect the Brent crude oil price will increase from $74/b in May 2023 to $79/b in September before declining slightly to average $78/b in the last three months of 2023.

We expect the Brent price will average $83/b in 2023 and $78/b in 2024, down from $101/b in 2022. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price (the U.S. benchmark price) is forecast to generally follow a similar path, averaging $77/b in 2023 and $72/b 2024.

Oil Reserves in the United States

The United States has proven reserves equivalent to 4.9 times its annual consumption. This means that, without imports, there would be about 5 years of oil left (at current consumption levels and excluding unproven reserves).

Oil can last up to 50 years, natural gas up to 53 years, and coal up to 114 years. Yet, renewable energy is not popular enough, so emptying our reserves can speed up.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021), the global supply of crude oil, other liquid hydrocarbons, and biofuels is expected to be adequate to meet the world's demand for liquid fuels through 2050.

Oil prices enter 2023 in the mid-$70s -- around the same level they were at the start of 2022. However, they've been anything but stable over the past year. Crude oil soared to a peak in the $120s after Russia's invaded Ukraine, but later receded on concerns that the global economy would slow down.

Will energy prices go down in 2023 usa? ›

Most of the electricity in the U.S. — about 40% — is produced by burning natural gas, the cost of which spiked to a 14-year-high last fall before dropping early in 2023.

WASHINGTON – Electricity generation in the U.S. will cross a critical threshold some time this year or next, according to new government projections: One-fourth of the supply will start coming from solar, wind and other renewable sources.

The agency forecasts that global oil demand under current market and policy conditions will rise by 6% from 2022 to reach 105.7 million barrels per day in 2028 on the back of the petrochemical and aviation sectors.

Petroleum imports from Canada have increased significantly since the 1990s, and Canada is now the largest single source of U.S. total petroleum and crude oil imports. In 2022, Canada was the source of 52% of U.S. gross total petroleum imports and 60% of gross crude oil imports.

Brent crude oil price forecasts

Meanwhile, the ANZ WTI oil price forecast suggested the US oil to rise to $104 by the end of 2023, and stay at that level in 2024, averaging at $89 in 2023 and $104 in 2024. Fitch saw WTI crude to trade at $80 in 2023, before slowing to $70 in 2024, $60 in 2025 and $50 in 2026.

The EIA lowered forecasts for international benchmark Brent crude and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) spot prices in the latest report. The administration expects Brent spot prices to average $78.65 per barrel in 2023, versus $85.01 per barrel previously, the EIA said.

The US Energy Information Administration forecasts the Brent crude oil spot price to average $74/bbl in 2024, $7/bbl lower than forecast in last month's Short-Term Energy Outlook.

Saudi Arabia has consistently been the world's top oil exporter, with an estimated 11 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023. The country has the largest oil reserves globally, and its oil production accounts for nearly a third of the global oil supply.

The Wall Street bank revised its average Brent price forecast for 2023 to $81 per barrel from $90 earlier, and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $76 a barrel from $84 previously. It also lowered its 2024 price forecasts for Brent to $83 per barrel from $98, and for WTI to $79 a barrel from $94 earlier.

You see, the U.S. does produce enough oil to meet its own needs, but it is the wrong type of oil. Crude is graded according to two main metrics, weight and sweetness. The weight of oil defines how easy it is to refine, or break down into its usable component parts, such as gasoline, jet fuel and diesel.

Who has the most oil in the world? ›

Venezuela - 303.806 Billion Barrels

Venezuela holds the largest oil reserves globally, with over 300 billion barrels mainly located in the Orinoco Belt at the southern end of the eastern Orinoco River Basin.

Oil Reserves FAQ

Venezuela is currently the country with the largest proven oil reserves in the world, with an estimated 300 billion barrels of oil.

Wind and solar energy

Solar energy and wind power are considered renewable natural resources, meaning as long as there's a sun in the sky (the sun fuels wind, too), we won't run out of them.

Energy. A sudden loss of oil supplies would make it impossible to meet world energy needs. Countries have very varying stocks of natural gas which they could tap, and Johansen says such resources would be quickly depleted.

That equates to somewhere in the region of 1.65 trillion barrels of proven oil reserves. Other sources up this estimate a bit, but most agree we have around 50 years left, give or take. For reference, a barrel of crude oil is about 42 gallons or about 159 liters.

Production stays steady or goes down slightly in other models but in every case that the analysts modeled, the U.S. will remain a net exporter of petroleum products and natural gas through 2050.

It took millions of years for it to form, and when it is extracted and consumed, there is no way for us to replace it. Oil supplies will run out. Eventually, the world will reach “peak oil,” or its highest production level. Some experts predict peak oil could come as soon as 2050.

This fossil fuel is used to generate energy, create petroleum products, and manufacture all sorts of end-user goods. This makes the oil market a lucrative investment that performs well even in times of inflation, recession, and other economic instabilities.

Crude prices could remain muted in the near term due to continued macroeconomic uncertainty and some supply and demand dynamics. However, oil appears poised to rebound later this year. This means now might be the perfect time to buy oil stocks, since many have followed oil prices lower in recent months.

Is oil a high risk investment? ›

However, because oil prices are highly volatile (and therefore high risk), they do have the potential for delivering large short term gains – if you're lucky – or big losses (if you're not). There are a number of ways to invest in oil, including direct and indirect investments.

Food prices are expected to grow more slowly in 2023 than in 2022 but still at above historical-average rates. In 2023, all food prices are predicted to increase 6.2 percent, with a prediction interval of 4.9 to 7.5 percent.

Though most major U.S. cities will see prices top around $4 per gallon, areas of California like San Francisco and Los Angeles could again experience near $7 gas prices again in the summer of 2023 if refineries struggle under mandates of unique formulations of gasoline.

GasBuddy's 2023 forecast says California may face gas prices near $7 a gallon in the summer but most cities will see prices peak at $4 a gallon.

Natural gas prices

The Henry Hub spot price averages around $3.40/MMBtu in 2024 in our forecast, nearly 30% higher than in 2023.

If we keep burning fossil fuels at our current rate, it is generally estimated that all our fossil fuels will be depleted by 2060.

We forecast that retail prices for regular-grade gasoline will average $3.32 per gallon (gal) in 2023 and continue to decrease to average $3.09/gal in 2024, down from $3.96/gal in 2022. We expect on-highway diesel prices to decrease to average $4.23/gal in 2023 before decreasing further to $3.70/gal in 2024.

The price of oil could climb to $300 a barrel if the world completely shuns crude oil from Russia, the country's deputy prime minister, Alexander Novak, reportedly said on Monday. His comments come as the European Union considers a ban on the purchase of Russian oil.

Our data shows a peak of 39 Gtpa in 2025, but that timeline could move up to as early as next year if the short-term macroeconomic outlook accelerates the energy transition. Last year proved a challenging one for global climate goals.

There is wide range of estimates of the point at which oil demand is likely to peak. Some projections suggest global oil demand could peak soon after 2025, others expect demand to continue to grow out to 2040 and beyond.

Where is most oil found in USA? ›

A main reason why the U.S. continues to import crude oil and refined products is that much of the infrastructure to produce oil, as well as refine and transport fuels, is in the mid-continent and U.S. Gulf Coast regions. Crude oil is not a homogenous product.

Oil will top $100 a barrel again this year and by 2024 we could 'have a serious problem,' says Goldman Sachs. Don't be surprised by pain at the pump. Oil will rise back above $100 a barrel this year and may face a serious supply problem in 2024 as spare production capacity runs out, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc ...

The production declines prompted some analysts to warn prices could surge to triple digits, with Goldman Sachs adjusting its Brent forecast up by $5 per barrel to $95 per barrel for December 2023.

Crude oil is a major economic input, so a rise in oil prices contributes to inflation, which measures the overall rate of price increases across the economy. Inflation as measured by the annual gain in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) set a 40-year high in March 2022 amid COVID-19 supply disruptions.

BP says demand for oil and gas will drop dramatically by 2050 in 'decisive shift' The share of fossil fuels as a primary energy source will fall from 80 percent in 2019 to between 55 and 20 percent by 2050, according to BP's annual energy outlook report.

U.S. LNG exports would have an inherent but limited impact on domestic natural gas prices through the next several decades, possibly driving the Henry Hub to a range between $3.30 and $4.30/MMBtu by 2050, according to a recent U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) analysis.

Solar power

It is clean and renewable, and it doesn't produce any emissions that contribute to climate change. Solar energy is also becoming increasingly affordable, thanks to advances in technology. The downside of solar power is that it requires sunlight, which isn't always available.

Luxembourg has the world's highest GDP per capita but no crude reserves. Lebanon, one of the poorest nations, is in the same position. Hong Kong is one of the smallest countries in the world geographically, while Kenya is among the largest. Neither has any proven reserves.

Do we need oil to survive? ›

Most of the hundreds of thousands of years of existence of human beings transpired without crude oil, and doubtless, we'd survive in the future without it. Our lives would likely become different from today's, but whether this will be better or worse is unclear. So how and with what could we replace crude oil?

We will need to continue extracting oil and natural gas for centuries, possibly millennia. We need hydrocarbons for the building blocks of modern life: pharmaceuticals, building materials, chemicals and lubricants.

We are still going to be overwhelmingly dependent on oil a decade from now. Our energy policies should reflect this reality. Go ahead and aggressively try to speed up this transition, but also recognize that oil will still be our most important commodity in a decade; probably even two decades from now.